Testing the Old Adage

You can't steal first base.

That's an old baseball truism. That saying is usually pulled out of the cliche drawer, and plugged into the conversation when a speedy young rookie comes up, swinging at everything. We hear about how fast he is, but when a player is batting under .200, he never gets a chance to show off his wheels? Why- because you can't steal first base. Once you're on first, stealing second is easiest, it's the longest throw for the catcher. Stealing third is all in the timing of the jump. Stealing home is as difficult as it is rare. Speed in baseball is a conditional threat. Unless you reach, you cannot run.

So, that's it: You can't steal first base.*

Yeah, I put that asterisk there. What fun would life be without exceptions to the rule? Even with an old axiom so obviously cut and dried, there's a way to steal first base. Not to any particular advantage, mind you, but it can still be done.

Jean Segura started this play on second, broke for third, and found himself picked off, and in a rundown. Then, he found himself standing face to face with Ryan Braun, who had also taken the opportunity to reach second base.

Then the fielder with the ball did what you should always do in this situation. Tag everybody you can, and let the umpire figure it out.

Hat tip to @gidget on Twitter

The umpire rules that Braun is out, as per the following rule:

7.03
(a) Two runners may not occupy a base, but if, while the ball is alive, two runners are touching a base, the following runner shall be out when tagged and the preceding runner is entitled to the base, unless Rule 7.03(b) applies.
(b) If a runner is forced to advance by reason of the batter becoming a runner and two runners are touching a base to which the following runner is forced, the following runner is entitled to the base and the preceding runner shall be out when tagged or when a fielder possesses the ball and touches the base to which such preceding runner is forced.

Since Braun is not being forced to second on the pickoff, he's out by virtue of being the tailing runner. Now the funny thing is, the ball is live the whole time. If Segura is tagged while off the base, he is also out. I'm pretty sure the second glove slap from the infielder happens after he takes a step towards first, but it's a tough call. The umpire is trying to think about rule 7.03 (a), and he might not have been watching real closely for the tag there. I'm not sure I would want a replay here, because it would suck all the fun out of Segura heading back towards his dugout, then being told he should stop at first - because he's still a baserunner.

The story has more to it, of course. Courtesy of this recap from Rob Neyer. Go read it, there's another backwards base stealing tale from 1911 in there. 

The topper to the Jean Segura mix up is that he tried to steal his way back to second in the same inning, but was thrown out. Hope you were scoring at home!

What Mr. Neyer did not include in his recap was the immortal baserunning of Lloyd 'Shaker' Moseby. Captured here via YouTube clip. Shout out to @minor_leaguer and @truebluela for remembering this one.



I understand why Moseby is safe at both ends of this play. What I don't understand is why he goes back to first. The only thing I can conceive, is that he thinks the play is a fly ball, not a throw to second. Boggles the mind. In a good way, because just when you think you've seen it all.... baseball has another trick up it's sleeve.

4-6-5-6-5-3-4 Triple Play

The Baltimore Orioles, 2012 edition, were the Team Of Destiny. They had a late inning mojo that carried them into the postseason. What do I mean when I say mojo? Well, Jayson Stark breaks down all the extra inning accomplishments in a post from last September (Bullet point 2). Adding to the extra innings accomplishments, when leading after 7 innings, they were 74-0. You could bank on the Orioles last year, when the chips were down, they came through. Those records have a lot to do with factors that are really not in the player's control. You can't really be so good you have invincible pitchers for the last 2 innings of every game, if they really existed, they wouldn't give up runs in any other innings either. Some of that run to the playoffs was built on luck.

If luck plays a part in creating favourable circumstances, it can certainly play a part in creating unfavourable ones too.

Double to CF

If you've read anything else I've written here, a couple of things should be obvious. 1) I enjoy watching a lot of baseball. 2) I value anything unexpected, anything that breaks up the rhythm of the game. It reminds me that sport, like life, can be a learning experience. The rules in baseball don't change much, but with fields, players, and field conditions changing all the time, the action on the field is always in a state of flux.
Emilio Bonifacio is new. Well, he's new to my eyes, and that's more than enough in this case. He's been playing second base in Toronto for less than a week, mostly because Brett Lawrie is injured. From the World Baseball Classic, I learned that he's a high energy player. His above average baseball tool: speed.
When he grounded a ball up the middle, he had every intention of making it to second base. Here are 2 GIF's of the play, courtesy of Matt at House of the Bluebird, showing him sprinting out of the box and then getting into second base without even being tagged.

So, on a scale of fast to FAST, Bonifacio appears to register as FAST in this real-life example.

As usual with baseball, there's another game tomorrow, and that game adds a little wrinkle to the story. The game I'm referring to doesn't even feature Emilio Bonifacio. Cleveland left Toronto, and continue their road trip in Tampa Bay. Baseball reference has play by play for every play of every game, and this one line came to my attention.

That's Yunel Escobar, who is probably only Fast on my scale of fastness. So what are the odds of another ground ball to centre field resulting in a double? I don't have a video highlight to help me out. I do, however, have twitter.

Yunel Escobar (and CB Bucknor) just Bonifacio'd Michael Bourn.
— Drew FFF (@DrewGROF) April 7, 2013

So Bourn was challenged again, and this time, he made the play. Only he didn't get credit for making the play. Why would Escobar even try to hustle a double? Hmmm, curious. Escobar, Bonifacio, and Bourn have all faced one another in the NL East in the past. When transplanting players to the AL East, did a little bit of knowledge come with them about Mr. Bourn?
I suppose only time will tell but maybe, this play it isn't about what we thought it was about.

This is not relevant, but I found it on Google. Only photo I am ever using of Micheal Bourn. Ever.

Joining the Club

Yu Darvish stands over the rubber, tired, sweating. It is the bottom of the ninth inning, at Minute Maid Park in Houston. The bases are empty. Marwin Gonzalez is at the plate. A.J. Pierzynski is squatting behind the plate, dropping down fingers as Yu looks for a pitch he wants. He is pitching this game in enemy territory, and his Rangers have scored seven runs. The crowd, resigned to a home team loss, is, strangely, on its feet in anticipation.

Darvish is trying to join a baseball fraternity. He is very, very close to being perfect. One more batter retired, and Yu Darvish will have thrown a Perfect Game.
Briefly, if you are unfamiliar with Perfect Games, they occur when a pitcher retires every batter before they can reach first base. If he does it twenty seven times, he has recorded a full games worth of outs. As long as his team has scored, the game is over, and for one night, the pitcher is perfect. Any pitcher can be perfect for one night, it has been done 23 times before.

Just One Silly Question

This all started with a question about the player pictured on the right. A player who I could not identify if I were to run into him on the street. He is Tim Collins. He plays baseball for the Kansas City Royals.
I became aware of the existence of Tim Collins a couple of years ago, when he was a minor leaguer in the Toronto Blue Jays system. I learned only two things about Tim while he was property of the Blue Jays. 1: He's short. 2: He throws baseballs very hard.
Since he left the Blue Jays system via a trade to the Braves, then a trade to the Royals, I've retained those two facts in my head. And nothing else about him.
The other night, in the World Baseball Classic, Tim Collins made a relief appearance for team U.S.A., just after Dan Brooks (who I follow @brooksbaseball on Twitter) had confirmed a winner in a pitch f/x trivia quiz.
Now, I will digress here to explain what Pitch f/x is, and what it has to do with a trivia quiz. Dan and Harry Pavlidis run BrooksBaseball.net, which is a free, online database of information gathered by Major League Baseball's Pitch f/x system. The database contains information on the characteristics of every pitch thrown in MLB since 2008. Pitch speed/spin and movement is tracked by a specialised camera system set up in each ballpark. Dan will, when he's in the mood, dig into the database, and ask questions from the gathered data. An example might be: Which pitcher has the largest difference between his fastball and changeup? Or what pitcher is most willing to throw a curveball in a 3-2 count? Odd facts, but things that make me think about the game on a different level. I enjoy these little side trips away from the action in a dull game, and I like to see other follower's guesses.
So, during 'Tiny' Tim Collins appearance, I put the only two things I knew about Tim Collins together and asked the following question.

@brooksbaseball So, does Tim Collins get the most MPH/inch of hieght in the majors?
— Greg Wisniewski (@coolhead2010) March 15, 2013

So Dan liked the question, and he put it out to his followers.

Weird question! Which Pitcher in MLB last year (min 200pitches) gets the most fourseam fastball velo PER INCH OF HEIGHT.
— Dan Brooks (@brooksbaseball) March 15, 2013

Which I thought was excellent. Tim Collins, though only 5'7", only managed to get second on the list. It took very little time to find the correct answer.

@rsaggiadi Well, fuck, that was easier than I thought.
— Dan Brooks (@brooksbaseball) March 15, 2013

 Which led to the following response from the person with the correct answer.

@brooksbaseball dude, he just pitched in this game!
— Renè Saggiadi (@rsaggiadi) March 15, 2013

At this point, I assume that @rsaggiadi was so quick to guess because he was assuming the Mr. Brooks had posted the question, only after having seen the two players already appear in the game. In fact, Dan only noticed after it was pointed out to him.

@brooksbaseball @rsaggiadi And are teammates in MLB. Secret Royals strategy?
— Daniel Moroz (@CamdenCrazies) March 15, 2013

So, that is the end of the trivia quiz. Kelvin Hererra is 5'9", and throw 97.4 mph on average. But Dan is still looking at his list of pitchers who bring the heat from their below average height, and there's a funny thing about the list.

Oddly enough there's a good chance #3 on this list ALSO gets in this game.
— Dan Brooks (@brooksbaseball) March 15, 2013

Holy crap this game is now weird.
— Dan Brooks (@brooksbaseball) March 15, 2013

Kimbrel is #4 on the list.
— Dan Brooks (@brooksbaseball) March 15, 2013

And so it came to pass that Craig Kimbrel, pitcher number four in velocity/height entered the game. He gave up two runs, setting up a save situation for the Dominican team. Off of the bullpen mound steps Fernando Rodney. Rodney is 5'11" and throws 96.2 mph. He is the third faster pitcher by height in the majors right now.

Now, is this significant? No. It was sure fun for me though! I picked a question to ask based on the following "There's that short guy who throws hard. I wonder if that's really that different." I was rewarded with an incredibly odd coincidence, as the top four pitchers, from a pool of almost 500 who appeared in the big leagues in 2012, also appeared in the game, like a Bleacher Report slideshow.
It also makes me speculate: Do the guys who have less physical tools, or have been told they are below average, have a bigger reason to say yes to the WBC when it comes calling? Are some of them willing to go, just to prove that they are worth being representatives of their country?

The final topper for all of this came a little bit later, when I got this tweet from Dan Brooks.

@coolhead2010  btw, sent your "velo/height" question to @msimonespn, who forwarded it to @kurkjian_espn
— Dan Brooks (@brooksbaseball) March 16, 2013

 I was, once again, very pleased that one silly question had such a good run.

@brooksbaseball @coolhead2010 @kurkjian_espn He thought it was awesome
— Mark Simon (@msimonespn) March 16, 2013

 Now, to all of you who say that statistics make the game less fun, I must disagree. Without the numbers to tell the tale, I never get to enjoy the magic of discovering any of this weirdness. We don't have to learn anything earth shattering to find that we love the game in a different way, we just have to ask the right questions at the right time, no matter how silly they are.

Guest Post: King of Perfection

One of the stories I never quite got around to writing about in 2012 was the perfect game thrown by Felix Hernandez of the Mariners. Today's guest poster has been nice enough to correct that oversight:

Even With Perfection, Felix Hernandez Was Overlooked

     Despite another lost season for the Seattle Mariners, in August of 2012 the team experienced their ace reach true perfection. Felix Hernandez threw the 23rd perfect game in baseball history last year, and the 2nd of 2012 when he faced the Tampa Bay Rays.
     From the very beginning, Hernandez was looking even better than the Cy Young Award winner has in the past. He began the game by inducing a ton of weakly hit ground balls and fly outs. Striking out two the first time through the order was impressive, but it was not until the sixth inning that things got interesting.
     In the top of the sixth, Hernandez began to turn it up a notch, and the crowd took notice. He struck out the 7-8-9 hitters for the Rays to complete the second time through the order. When he came out for the seventh, he got outfielder Sam Fuld to roll over a ball, but then BJ Upton came up for the most controversial part of the perfect game.
      Upton grounded out to Sean Rodriguez at third base, but Rays manager Joel Madden would come out and actually be ejected for arguing the call. After a delay, some wondered if Hernandez would cool down. He responded by striking out five of the last six batters he faced, putting his stamp on baseball history.
     With so many perfect games and no hitters thrown in recent memory, Hernandez never really received the attention he deserved, even in fantasy baseball circles. In fact, that has sort of been his problem his entire career. Even during his Cy Young award season, many looked at his 13-12 record as though it was his fault.
      Ironically, the Mariners only offered him one run of support during that August game. He was one swing away from getting a no-decision in that game for the ages. Even by Hernandez’s standards, he was simply dominant in every way manageable in that game.

Guest Post: Blockbuster

A look back at magical moments from:

Special guest author Minor Leaguer from Bluebird Banter

“MAR-CO SCU-TA-RO! *clap clap clap clap clap*” There’s something magical about such a chantable name, isn’t there? 

San Francisco Giants fans had little reason to chant Marco Scutaro’s name when he was acquired from the Colorado Rockies for AAA prospect Charlie Culberson. They were in first place and just acquired a 36-year old infielder who was batting .271/.324/.361 in the thin air of Denver. The Giants needed someone to fill at the hot corner after Kung Fu Panda tried to do splits, and when Pablo Sandoval was to return, the team needed someone to replace either Brandon Crawford or Ryan Theriot afterwards—two players who barely scraped above .300 OBP. They could’ve done better—they could’ve tried to acquire someone with a bigger name to catch up with the haul that the Los Angeles Dodgers got from the Boston Red Sox.

But it turned out to be the best deadline trade of 2012. His teammates grew to love Marco so much they actually started calling him “Blockbuster,” and after the Giants won the NLCS, ace Matt Cain called the trade “the best thing that’s ever happened so far.” Better than his wedding day, better than the day his daughter was born. What did Marco do to deserve all the praise? 

In the two remaining months of the regular season after Marco first put on a Giants uniform he hit .362/.385/.473—he went from creating 25% fewer runs than the league in Colorado (75 wRC+) to being 37% above average in San Francisco (137 wRC+). His strikeout rate dropped from an 8.4% before the trade to 5.2% afterwards. (For comparison, the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays’ second baseman Kelly Johnson had a 27.4% strikeout rate.) 

He was on a red-hot streak entering the playoffs, but then the magic started: he somehow just stopped missing baseballs. He played all five games of the NLDS and did not strikeout once, and only recorded one K in the seven NLCS games. Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan looked through every single Marco Scutaro at bat during the NLCS. and found that, out of the 78 swings he took, he only missed the ball twice. In that magical seven-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals, he hit .500/.533/.607, he didn’t go 0-for in any game and managed to record six multi-hit games, collecting 14 hits in 28 at bats. 

But the magic could have easily ended in the top of the first in game 2 of the NLCS. Marco, the 5’10”/185-pound second baseman, was trying to turn a double play when he was crushed by Cardinals’ 6’4”/235-pound runner Matt Holliday’s hard slide over second base. AT&T Park was showering boos as Marco rolled around the infield dirt in pain. Watching on TV, I thought his season was over.
  
But as you can see in the video, after a few minutes, the diminutive Venezuelan stood right up, dusted himself off and continued playing for his team. Two batters later and it was his turn to come up to bat and what did he do? Slam a line drive single up the middle against Chris Carpenter. Later in the game, he loosened a tight 2-1 Giants lead by lining another single with the bases loaded, scoring three (with the help of an error). He continued his success against Carpenter in Game 6, hitting a two-run double in the second inning. 

Marco contributed 3 hits and took a walk in the final game of the NLCS, which was decided early on when the Giants took a 7-0 lead by the end of the 3rd inning. But of course, the players had to complete the requisite 9 innings of play, despite the skies opening up to a pouring rain by the top of the 9th. Very appropriately, the NLCS ended when Matt Holliday, the man sacked Marco game 1, popped a ball straight up to the skies where it mixed with the rain to drop into the glove of the Giants’ magical second baseman. Did he think that the moment was pure magic? Judge for yourself. 

Image courtesy of SBNation

Of course, describing Marco Scutaro’s NLCS as “magical” doesn’t mean his success was mana granted from the heavens. As Blue Jays fans may remember, Marco had a knack of creating magic: remember when he took second base on a walk when he caught the Phillies’ infielders napping? It is his natural talent, hard work, and intellect that gave him that magic. 

 Marco was awarded the NLCS MVP trophy, and later with a $20-million contract to allow Giants fans to chant “MAR-CO SCU-TA-RO! *clap clap clap clap clap*” every home game he plays in for the next 3 years. Looks like they’ll have more magic in store.